Ahmedabad University Mathematical Models to Aid Public Health Decisions in 2026

Key Areas of Impact

1. Stopping Dengue Before It Spreads

• The Problem: Rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns help dengue-carrying mosquitoes thrive.

• The Math Solution: Professor Ghosh builds models that track how environmental temperature and humidity affect mosquito life cycle.

• The Result: His team found that targeted control efforts like fogging and insecticide spraying work best when applied as early as June and continue through September. In the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation region, sticking to this schedule could cut dengue cases by nearly 83% by 2028.

2. Closing the Measles Protection Gap

• The Problem: Babies lose their mothers' natural immunity around 6 months of age, but usually don't get their first measles vaccine until 9 months. This creates a dangerous 3-month window where infants are completely unprotected.

• The Math Solution: Using age-stratified modeling—which accounts for how different age groups interact—his team tests early intervention strategies.

• The Result: By starting supplementary vaccination drives at 6 months instead of waiting until 9 months, public health teams can shield vulnerable infants during their highest-risk period.

Also Read: Ahmedabad University Courses

Standard Strategy vs. Ghosh’s Framework

This mathematical approach forms the foundation of two important research projects led by Professor Ghosh:

• Mosquito-Borne Diseases: With support from an ANRF MATRICS grant, Professor Ghosh is developing mathematical models that consider different age groups to understand how climate change may influence the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. The research also aims to identify the most effective ways to control and prevent these diseases.

• Measles: Supported by the Gates Foundation through a collaboration between IIT Bombay and Imperial College London, he is using similar mathematical models to improve vaccination strategies. The goal is to make vaccination programmes more effective and contribute to the global effort to eliminate measles.

Professor Ghosh’s research also has an impact beyond India. He is working closely with WHO Indonesia, the Indonesian Ministry of Health, and Dr. Bimandra Adiputra Djaafara from the NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health to support Indonesia’s goal of eliminating measles by 2030. Through his mathematical models, he provides policymakers with valuable scientific insights that can help them make informed decisions about vaccination programmes and other public health measures.

For Professor Ghosh, mathematics is more than just numbers and equations—it is a practical tool that can help shape public health policies, prevent the spread of diseases, and ultimately save lives. At the same time, he believes that mathematics alone cannot solve these challenges. Public awareness, community education, and healthy preventive practices are equally important. According to him, eliminating diseases is a shared responsibility that requires researchers, governments, healthcare professionals, and ordinary citizens to work together.

Disclaimer: This content was distributed by the Ahmedabad University and has been published as part of the Careers360 marketing initiative.